(Visited 99 times, 1 visits today)FacebookTwitterPinterestSave分享0 It’s a little late to begin a new climate of transparency among climatologists. What does that imply about the past?It happened by accident, Paul Voosen reports in his article for Science Magazine, “Climate scientists open up their black boxes to scrutiny.”It began with an unplanned leave of absence. But it has blossomed into a full-fledged transparency movement for climate science.In 2010, Erich Roeckner, a longtime guru behind the global climate model at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPIM) in Hamburg, Germany, was unable to work. The timing was inopportune: Deadlines loomed for an international project that would compare the major climate models with one another, and MPIM’s had a bug….With Roeckner out of commission, a team of six people spent several months tuning the MPIM model to match the climate and eliminate the glitch. Their work, though laborious, was fairly routine. What was unusual was their decision, in 2012, to publish a detailed accounting of it. Roeckner’s absence was random. But in hindsight, it was the butterfly flapping that has now led climate modelers to openly discuss and document tuning in ways that they had long avoided, fearing criticism by climate skeptics.This revelation should strike readers as disturbing on several levels. That the details of such a politically-fraught subject have been concealed from the public in a “black box” seems contrary to the very spirit of science, where transparency in scientific methods should be paramount. Voosen has just let the cat out of the bag: “fearing criticism by climate skeptics,” climate modelers have “long avoided” letting the public look inside the box. Why? If their data are incontrovertible—as all the big science institutions constantly assure the public—why the fear?We also see a disturbing situation in that modelers “tune” their inputs to the climate in clunky ways. Does the following sound like the classical scientific method? Count the ways things could go wrong as you listen to Voosen describe the sausage-making in the modeling rooms:At their core, climate models are about energy balance. They divide Earth up into boxes, and then, applying fundamental laws of physics, follow the sun’s energy as it drives phenomena like winds and ocean currents. Their resolution has grown over the years, allowing current models to render Earth in boxes down to 25 kilometers a side. They take weeks of supercomputer time for a full run, simulating how the climate evolves over centuries.When the models can’t physically resolve certain processes, the parameters take over—though they are still informed by observations. For example, modelers tune for cloud formation based on temperature, atmospheric stability, humidity, and the presence of mountains. Parameters are also used to describe the spread of heat into the deep ocean, the reflectivity of Arctic sea ice, and the way that aerosols, small particles in the atmosphere, reflect or trap sunlight.It’s impossible to get parameters right on the first try. And so scientists adjust these equations to make sure certain constraints are met, like the total energy entering and leaving the planet, the path of the jet stream, or the formation of low marine clouds off the California coast. Modelers try to restrict their tuning to as few knobs as possible, but it’s never as few as they’d like. It’s an art and a science. “It’s like reshaping an instrument to compensate for bad sound,” Stevens says.Wait a minute: who decides what is a “bad sound”? There seems to be a lot of wiggle room in this “art” of modeling – enough to get a politically-motivated result by turning enough knobs. This is definitely not a case of following the evidence where it leads. It’s more like Finagle’s Rule #3, “Draw your curves first, then plot your data.” If funding sources, the politically powerful and the UN want a result they can promote like “Man-caused global warming will raise global temperatures by 2 degrees in 100 years,” then who is a lowly modeler to get a contrary result from his black box, especially if he fears climate skeptics? Voosen says this is exactly what has been going on all along.For years, climate scientists had been mum in public about their “secret sauce”: What happened in the models stayed in the models. The taboo reflected fears that climate contrarians would use the practice of tuning to seed doubt about models—and, by extension, the reality of human-driven warming. “The community became defensive,” Stevens says. “It was afraid of talking about things that they thought could be unfairly used against them.” Proprietary concerns also get in the way. For example, the United Kingdom’s Met Office sells weather forecasts driven by its climate model. Disclosing too much about its code could encourage copycats and jeopardize its business.One can see plenty of room for corruption here: profit motives, reputations, the us-vs-them mentality. Secret sauce? Taboos? This is not Las Vegas, where what happens there stays there. It looks for all the world like political parties or competing corporations using dirty tricks, not scientists seeking to understand the real world. His terminology about secrecy and fear should be alarming to a wary public that respects science but is worried about the economic costs of draconian climate mitigation policies, such as carbon taxes and elimination of fossil fuel jobs, that the politicians say, based on these models, must be imposed for the good of the planet.Voosen’s article doesn’t give much hope that climate science will improve with the new transparency fad. The following episode most likely never made it into the Paris accords or the latest IPCC report:Recently, while preparing for the new model comparisons, MPIM modelers got another chance to demonstrate their commitment to transparency. They knew that the latest version of their model had bugs that meant too much energy was leaking into space. After a year spent plugging holes and fixing it, the modelers ran a test and discovered something disturbing: The model was now overheating. Its climate sensitivity—the amount the world will warm under an immediate doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations from preindustrial levels—had shot up from 3.5°C in the old version to 7°C, an implausibly high jump.MPIM hadn’t tuned for sensitivity before—it was a point of pride—but they had to get that number down. Thorsten Mauritsen, who helps lead their tuning work, says he tried tinkering with the parameter that controlled how fast fresh air mixes into clouds. Increasing it began to ratchet the sensitivity back down. “The model we produced with 7° was a damn good model,” Mauritsen says. But it was not the team’s best representation of the climate as they knew it.Voosen undoubtedly believes in anthropogenic global warming, as do the editors of Science. But if they thought this article was going to make the public feel better about climate experts, they must be kidding themselves. Bugs, leaks, plumbers – what’s going on here? And look at this photo caption: “Storm clouds are too small for climate models to render directly, and so modelers must tune for them.” Think about that. Surely clouds must be one of the most important factors in any climate theory, but this says they can’t use real cloud data. They have to fudge the model. They have to tinker with the numbers to get the result they want.If modelers were afraid of revealing their secret sauce, what will they do now that the window is open? Published in Science, this exposé into how international climate policy has been shaped by a group of inept tinkerers in back rooms will give the skeptics a field day like the re-opened FBI investigation into Clinton’s emails. But perhaps that’s just dandy. After all, every cloud has a silver lining, and sunshine is the best disinfectant.If this goes on in climate science, given all the funding and political pressure involved, you can be sure similar tinkering goes on in models of Darwinian evolution. The DODOs and DOPEs must keep the Darwin skeptics at bay at all costs. Don’t count on transparency there.
19 April 2011 The third BRICS Leaders Meeting in Sanya, China marked a “very successful entry” for South Africa into the grouping of powerful developing economies, says Trade and Industry Minister Rob Davies. Speaking to journalists in Pretoria on Sunday following his return from last week’s BRICS summit, Davies said South Africa was well aware that in many ways it did not measure up to Brazil, China, India and Russia, but had been invited to join the grouping because it served as a gateway to Africa. He described the meeting as highly successful for South Africa, adding that important bi-lateral trade issues were discussed, especially with China. Chinese delegates were sympathetic to South Africa’s call for investment in beneficiation, which could have positive implications for the country’s export revenue, Davies said. At the moment, South Africa exports mainly raw mineral materials to China while importing manufactured goods.BRICS mull trade in local currencies Davies told journalists that the five BRICS nations could benefit considerably by trading directly in their own currencies, cutting out unstable internationally convertible currencies. Davies said such a system would take out the money lost to the “middle man” in conversion, and protect the BRICS partners from the volatility affecting internationally convertible currencies, notably the dollar. “First of all the middle man always takes a cut, and we are also having to take into account the currency fluctuation that happens along the way.” The proposal is considered one of the most interesting developments to come out of the BRICS summit and could have serious implications for the dollar, but it raises question about how the members would calculate conversion rates Davies said the countries were not “remotely close” to picking the model for making their currencies inter-convertible. He stressed that the proposal was part of the emerging market countries’ call for greater say in how the world’s financial system was run and the debate on which currencies should be in the emergency “basket” of drawing rights managed by the International Monetary Fund. Davies said monetary policy in the developed world was wreaking havoc on developing economies like South Africa by inflating their currencies as investors went hunting for higher exchange rates. Commenting on the Doha Round of tariff negotiations, Davies said it was imperative that the talks continued but addressed obstacles for developing nations, notably agriculture subsidies. “There must be a next round, but it must be a development round,” he said. Sapa
SharePrint RelatedGroundspeak Weekly Newsletter – February 2, 2011February 2, 2011In “News”Announcing the 2014 CITO Weekend and SouvenirJanuary 26, 2014In “Cache In Trash Out”Groundspeak Weekly Newsletter – April 18, 2012April 18, 2012In “Cache In Trash Out” Geocache to Clean Up TrashInternational Cache In Trash Out weekend is nearly here! Cache In Trash Out (CITO) is an effort by the geocaching community to clean up parks and other cache-friendly places around the world. You can make a difference by picking up litter on every geocaching outing and by attending a CITO Event Cache. CITO Events are organized by geocachers and may involve assisting with a clean-up, removal of invasive species or revegetation efforts.CITO Events are held throughout the year, but the initiative gains special focus for one weekend around Earth Day each year, when the worldwide geocaching community holds CITO Events to benefit their local spaces. The 9th annual Cache In Trash Out weekend is scheduled for April 30th – May 1st, 2011.CITO Events are open to everyone. Participate in a CITO event near you to meet your fellow geocachers, add a CITO icon to your geocaching stats, and help preserve the beauty of the places where you love to go geocaching! There are many events scheduled for the dates surrounding April 30th, so make sure to check out the CITO Event calendar today.Thank you to Magellan, makers of the eXplorist® GC, which is 100% dedicated to geocaching, for sponsoring the 2011 Cache In Trash Out initiative. Learn more about Magellan.Share with your Friends:More
Kris Aquino ‘pretty chill about becoming irrelevant’ View comments Trending Articles PLAY LIST 00:50Trending Articles00:50Trending Articles00:50Trending Articles01:29Police teams find crossbows, bows in HK university01:35Panelo suggests discounted SEA Games tickets for students02:49Robredo: True leaders perform well despite having ‘uninspiring’ boss02:42PH underwater hockey team aims to make waves in SEA Games01:44Philippines marks anniversary of massacre with calls for justice01:19Fire erupts in Barangay Tatalon in Quezon City Don’t miss out on the latest news and information. Japan ex-PM Nakasone who boosted ties with US dies at 101 Typhoon Kammuri accelerates, gains strength en route to PH LATEST STORIES Spieth falls further from the lead at the Australian Open The Philippines lost out to China in its hosting bid in the 2019 Fiba World Cup.It hasn’t served as the hosts of the biggest international basketball tournament since 1978, where Yugoslavia won the title.Japan last staged the Fiba World Cup in 2006 in Saitama, while Indonesia has yet to hold the said event.Argentina has hosted the basketball competition twice before, in the inaugural staging in 1950 and in 1990, both in Buenos Aires, while its partner Uruguay held it in 1967 in Montevideo.ADVERTISEMENT CPP denies ‘Ka Diego’ arrest caused ‘mass panic’ among S. Tagalog NPA Stronger peso trims PH debt value to P7.9 trillion The two bidders submitted their Host Nation Agreements on the deadline day, confirming their interest to hold the 19th edition of the Basketball World Cup.FIBA is pursuing the multi-country hosting becayse of its success in recent years according Fiba Secretary General Patrick Baumann.FEATURED STORIESSPORTSWATCH: Drones light up sky in final leg of SEA Games torch runSPORTSSEA Games: Philippines picks up 1st win in men’s water poloSPORTSMalditas save PH from shutout“This was the case at the last two editions of the FIBA EuroBasket as well as at FIBA AfroBasket 2017 and the FIBA AmeriCup 2017. We are fully confident this formula will also work to great effect for our flagship competition. Furthermore, these are countries with rich basketball traditions and passionate fans.”Both candidates will present their proposals to the Fiba Central Board on December 9 and the Board will also award the hosting on the same day. Read Next QC cops nab robbery gang leader, cohort Kammuri turning to super typhoon less likely but possible — Pagasa Brace for potentially devastating typhoon approaching PH – NDRRMC MOST READ INQUIRER FILE PHOTOThe Philippines is still in the running to host the 2023 Fiba World Cup as the international basketball federation trimmed down the candidates to just two.FIBA guaranteed that the 2023 edition will be staged in multiple countries for the first time as the three-nation bid of the Philippines, Japan, and Indonesia and the joint proposal of Argentina and Uruguay were selected as the finalists for the 32-team global hoops extravaganza.ADVERTISEMENT
Man Utd icon Schmeichel: Pogba not bigger than the clubby Paul Vegas10 months agoSend to a friendShare the loveManchester United legend Peter Schmeichel feels Paul Pogba needs to be brought into line.There’s been reports of Pogba celebrating the sacking of manager Jose Mourinho last week.Schmeichel stated, “It has been portrayed as if Pogba has won a war. It doesn’t work for me. It can’t happen to United. It is extremely important that the club handle this situation. Pogba, or anyone else, can’t get bigger than the club.”Schmeichel believes caretaker manager Ole Gunner Solskjaer has what it takes to handle the situation.”I think it’s the key, that Ole can tames the situation, get one like Pogba to play to the potential we all know he has in him.” About the authorPaul VegasShare the loveHave your say
zoomIllustration; Source: Pexels Greek ship owner and operator Euroseas has secured a charter contract for its 5,600 TEU container vessel, the Akinada Bridge.Built in 2001, the ship would be deployed on the charter for a minimum of ten and maximum of thirteen months at a daily rate of USD 16,500.Euroseas said that the charter would commence upon completion of the vessel’s special survey and drydocking and the installation of a ballast water treatment plant at a total cost of about USD 2.5 million.The company added that it expects to fully recover the above-mentioned cost over the duration of the charter and to finance it via a loan from an entity affiliated with the company’s CEO.“The strength of the intermediate size containership market has provided us with an opportunity to charter our only non-feeder vessel at rates that justified the investment required to complete the fourth special survey of the vessel and installation of a BWT plant. After the completion of the announced charter, we expect to have the vessel available for employment until its fifth special survey due date, i.e. for four additional years, with minimal incremental investment required beyond its operating cost,” Aristides Pittas, Chairman and CEO of Euroseas, said.“We are cautiously optimistic about the prospects of the containership market across all segments as fleet growth over the next couple of years is expected to be low by recent trends.”
In her new role as UNHCR Special Envoy, Angelina Jolie has made five trips to visit refugees so far this year. She travelled to Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey in September 2012 to meet some of the tens of thousands of Syrians who have fled conflict in their homeland and sought shelter in neighboring countries.Jolie wrapped up her Middle East visit in Iraq, where she met Syrian refugees in the north as well as internally displaced Iraqis and refugee returnees to Baghdad.The UNHCR has posted a set of unpublished photos that were taken during her visit to the Middle East and show her meeting with Syrian and Iraqi refugees. The photos can be found here.
Usually, it’s pretty easy to figure out why an NBA team got better. The Sixers, who were the NBA’s most-improved team this year, got Joel Embiid and an extra 18 wins compared to last season. Houston, 14 wins better, got MVP-level play out of James Harden, who’s been a perfect fit for new coach Mike D’Antoni’s pace-and-space offense.Then there’s Utah, a team that was 40-42 last year, yet has pieced together a fringe NBA title contender this season. The Jazz’s improvement isn’t as straightforward as the Rockets’ or Sixers’, though — they did it by tinkering with the margins of a roster that had missed the postseason for four consecutive years, and they’re capitalizing on their two young stars finally coming of age.Perhaps the best comparison for this Jazz team is the Indiana Pacers from three or four years ago: Rudy Gobert is the Jazz’s souped-up version of Roy Hibbert, the leader of a very stingy defense that forces a ton of midrange jumpers. Gordon Hayward is the analog to Paul George, a talented wing player who can score over just about anyone. And Utah’s George Hill is … George Hill, who joined the team in July following an offseason trade and is now the conductor of a Pacers-like slow-paced offense. And even that lofty comparison to the two-time Eastern Conference finalists may be selling this club short; the Jazz shoot and pass the ball better and far more than Indiana ever did.Much of Utah’s jump stems from two key trades that bolstered each of those areas. The first deal landed Hill, a respected veteran point guard1In exchange for the No. 12 pick, Taurean Prince, in a three-team deal, and the other yielded skilled forward Boris Diaw2Diaw cost the Jazz Olivier Hanlan, the 42nd pick in 2015, and a 2022 second-rounder.. Both players, who once played for San Antonio, have helped the Jazz become a rare team that has been able to replicate the Spurs’ style. Watch the Jazz for long enough, and you can see San Antonio’s influences baked into some of Utah’s offensive plays and sets; particularly when Diaw is on the floor3The Jazz threw more passes than any other team during the 2014 and 2015 seasons. The Spurs ranked third and fifth, respectively..Video Playerhttps://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/spursaction.mp400:0000:0000:00Use Up/Down Arrow keys to increase or decrease volume.Video Playerhttps://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/utahspurs-likeaction.mp400:0000:0000:00Use Up/Down Arrow keys to increase or decrease volume.The team’s transactions weren’t the sexiest, which is reflected by the NBA’s national TV ratings, in which the Jazz still rank near the bottom of the league. But as of now, those two moves — plus the Joe Johnson signing — look prescient. Hill, despite battling injuries all season, forced opponents to guard the perimeter more honestly and logged a career-high scoring average. Diaw, Utah’s best passer despite playing power forward, finished with a team-high six assists in the Game One victory over the Clippers. And Johnson, who connected on 41 percent of his 3s during the regular season, had 21 points in the series opener, including the game-winning floater at the buzzer4There were a flurry of Twitter users who didn’t know Johnson played for the Jazz until they saw him hit the dramatic shot to win Game One.But the offseason moves alone wouldn’t have made the Jazz this formidable. Utah needed Hayward to take the next step. Among the most notable improvements that he has made: Hayward has grown considerably stronger, giving him the ability to be more aggressive and absorb more contact as he barrels toward the basket following curls and dribble handoffs. Aside from connecting on a blistering 69 percent of his shots at the rim this year — one of six wings to shoot that well on 200 shots or more — Hayward also managed to log a career-best 45 and-1 situations where he scored despite getting fouled. By contrast, he was blocked just 43 times all season. To put that into context, it’s pretty rare for wing players to finish with more and-1s than shots blocked in a given season; this year LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard were the only other wings to accomplish the feat5Among players with at least 30 and-1s.Video Playerhttps://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/hayward2.mp400:0000:0000:00Use Up/Down Arrow keys to increase or decrease volume.Video Playerhttps://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/haywardstrength.mp400:0000:0000:00Use Up/Down Arrow keys to increase or decrease volume.The other Jazz player who took the leap is also the reason the team’s die-hard fans can’t sleep at night: How injured is Gobert? It’s not clear how long he’ll be out with his knee hyperextension and bone bruise. The Jazz managed to squeak by without him on Saturday, but as Tuesday’s Game Two highlighted, the defense sans Gobert may be too porous to win this series6The Jazz have allowed the Clippers to shoot 79 percent from inside of five feet this series when using small-ball lineups, according to ESPN Stats & Information Group. That number shrinks to a more respectable 62 percent when Utah uses two traditional bigs on the court at once., let alone compete with Golden State, who will almost certainly be waiting for them in the conference semifinals.But should Utah get a healthy version of its best player back — and yes, Gobert’s incredible jump in offensive efficiency, paired with his stellar defense, makes him the club’s most-valuable player — the Jazz can make some noise. They owned the third-best defense in the association this year, behind San Antonio and Golden State, and excel at defensive rebounding and limiting team’s opportunities in transition. Playing the percentages, the defense surrenders the NBA’s lowest share of corner 3-point attempts, and the only true soft spot they possess on that end is by design: They rank near the top of the league in terms of how frequently they goad opponents into taking inefficient midrange jumpers.Yet their entire defensive scheme, which often calls for wings to switch assignments and aggressively crowd their opponents along the 3-point line, works to perfection because of Gobert’s incredible mobility and impact around the rim. Watch this regular-season sequence against Portland, for instance. Damian Lillard seemingly pulls the trigger on his shot a beat quicker than he normally would to avoid Gobert. Then Blazers forward Al-Farouq Aminu grabs an offensive rebound, but opts against going for the putback because of Gobert’s presence.Video Playerhttps://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/scaredofgobert.mp400:0000:0000:15Use Up/Down Arrow keys to increase or decrease volume.When teams are actually bold enough to bring the ball inside against him7Opponents take just 31 percent of their shot attempts at the restricted area with Gobert on the court, down from 36 percent when he’s on the bench., it frequently turns out to be a mistake.Video Playerhttps://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/gobertswat.mp400:0000:0000:00Use Up/Down Arrow keys to increase or decrease volume.Gobert, who led the NBA in defensive win shares and blocks, held foes to 49 percent shooting from within six feet, 12.5 percentage points beneath their average and the best rate among centers8Among those who have played at least 50 games. Fellow Defensive Player of the Year candidate Draymond Green’s rim-protection stats were equally impressive, at 48 percent while holding players 13.2 points under their averages. But Green is considered a forward on NBA.com..As tense as this moment is for Jazz fans, the offseason may prove to be even more stressful. Hayward, 27, and Hill, 30, become unrestricted free agents at season’s end, leaving the small-market club — which has the league’s smallest payroll — with tough financial choices9The team also faces a tough decision on big man Derrick Favors, who’s getting a pretty high-profile audition with Gobert sidelined. as it seeks to build on its first 50-win season since the 2009-10 season with Hall of Fame coach Jerry Sloan.But those decisions can wait a bit. After all, winning — and doing it now, in this postseason, with this core group — is the strongest case a team like Utah can make to its pending free agents anyway.Check out our NBA playoff predictions.