Commentary: IEEFA Versus the IEA FacebookTwitterLinkedInEmailPrint分享Independent Australia:The same claims of bad forecasts are also occasionally made about the Institute for Energy Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) — an independent group of highly experienced analysts, who argue that the coal industry is in structural decline. One way of resolving this tension is to assume that the truth lies somewhere in the middle. But, of course, a far better way is to check their past predictions against observed reality and, by this measure, IEEFA is consistently very close and the IEA is somewhere out in the outer rings of Saturn.In a world that has come to depend so strongly on energy, bad forecasts carry disastrous consequences for financial markets, international relations, war and peace, employment, social planning and, of course, climate change.Which begs the question: why is the IEA so far off the mark? The answer might lie in their Coal Industry Advisory Board (CIAB), which was set up by the IEA to inform the agency about the future of the coal industry. However, rather than being made up of experts, like analysts, economists and futurists, the Coal Industry Advisory Board is made up exclusively of CEOs and very senior managers for companies that trade in coal, sometimes exclusively.The Australian coal industry has four representatives on the advisory board, of whom Greg Everett, the CEO of Sunset Power, who owns the Vales Point Power Station at Lake Macquarie, is one. Vales Point spits out about as much carbon as Jamaica.Peter Freyberg is the Head of Coal Assets at Glencore, which is the biggest thermal coal mining company in Australia. Glencore has been accused of violating Indigenous rights and poisoning rivers at the McArthur River Mine in the Northern Territory. Glencore also happens to be very good at avoiding corporate tax.James Palmer is the “Asset President, Coal” at BHP Billiton. Although BHP was the largest coal producer in Australia, BHP’s strategy is to get out of coal, making Palmer’s job very hard.The last representative is Jeyakumar Janakaraj, the CEO of an outfit you may have heard of — Adani. Adani, of course, wants to build a massive toxic coal mine in Queensland and ship it through the Great Barrier Reef, with a free water licensce in drought-stricken Queensland. Which begs the question: why does the guy who runs the company get to help write the most authoritative report in the world on the future of the coal industry? Nice work if you can get it.In defiance of the laws of thermodynamics, the information system driving decision-making around energy looks like a closed system, where the coal industry tells the IEA what it thinks demand for coal will look like in decades to come, the IEA tells decision-makers that coal will be around for decades, and the companies get to claim that the IEA supports their arguments. A generous way to look at it would be to assume that the industry’s subconscious biases are seeping into the World Energy Outlook. A more sinister view is that the industry is running a self-protection racket.You would think that Department Secretaries, the Planning and Assessment Commission and the Queensland Land Court would research who writes these reports and work out whether their claims stack up. Unfortunately, given our tendency to wrongly attach weight to opinions coming from perceived authorities, communities challenging coal, oil and gas projects have to argue why their claims are more justifiable than the World Energy Outlook.The reality is that, as IEEFA has repeatedly pointed out, coal is on the way out. The technology to power 100 per cent of the entire world with the power of the sun, the wind and the waves, is plummeting in cost and already exists today. What this means for coal-affected communities is that we deserve to be told the truth and to very quickly create a vision for the future of our communities. For financial institutions and companies related to fossil fuel companies, they need to develop a strategy to reduce their exposure to fossil fuels, starting immediately. Decision-makers need to take the WEO reports with a degree of caution. Governments at all levels need to significantly increase their ambition and action to get to a 1.5oC world. Citizens like us need to do what we do best and ramp up our efforts to force decision-makers to speed up the transition.Last year, dozens of companies and governments moved away from coal because of people-powered movements and campaigns. It is far from enough, but we are getting bigger and better at winning. It’s time to get vested interests out of energy analysis. Those who stand in the way of progress have been warned.More: The IEA’s World Energy Outlook and its coal bias
Owner Sabena Power and trainer Eddie Lynam completed the remarkable feat of winning both of Royal Ascot’s Group One sprints with two different horses. Sole Power had quickly been ruled out of the Diamond Jubilee Stakes as he was tired from his success in Tuesday’s King’s Stand, but the two years younger, but unrelated, Slade Power was more than ready to step into his shoes. The only difference was it was Wayne Lordan in the saddle rather than Richard Hughes, and the 7-2 favourite was ridden more prominently and to less dramatic effect than the fast-finishing Sole Power, but it was the same outcome as he strongly repelled Due Diligence and obliged by a length and a half. Press Association As Sole Power is the five-furlong specialist and Slade Power has his first top-level victory at six, it would appear easy for Lynam to keep them apart, but they will meet once again in next month’s Darley July Cup at Newmarket. The junior member took third and the old man fifth in last season’s renewal. It prompted joyous celebrations for Irish bookmaking family the Powers, with this ranking as a similar achievement to that of the Australian Choisir, who collected both races in 2003, a year after the Diamond Jubilee had been promoted to a Group One. The family have just a handful horses at Lynam’s County Meath stable, while the trainer had also won Wednesday’s Queen Mary Stakes with Anthem Alexander. “This one’s very special as we bred him,” said Lynam. “They’re special owners, and I’m lucky to have special staff, special horses and a great family to back me up. It’s just a coincidence, I’ve got two very good horses and they’ll both run in the July Cup. Sole Power will wear the first colours as he’s the elder statesman and the stable pet. “Trainers get 10 per cent (of prize-money) for a reason – it’s only 10 per cent to do with us. It’s been a great week and there is nowhere I like winning more than here. I love the place.” Power’s son, Paddy, added: “This is the family week of all time. Two Royal Ascot winners – it just doesn’t happen. We were quite confident he’d come on from his first run at the Curragh. It’s very special.” They had to wait to celebrate as a stewards’ inquiry was called, but the result was quickly confirmed. Lordan, who got a one-day careless riding ban, said: “He travelled real well, I got there a little bit soon and he rolled around with me, but I had plenty left and I’m delighted. It feels great. We don’t come across these horses too often that can come and compete, and when they win it’s even better.”
Fort St. John youth will use their talents to keep Brazilian kids in school. The North Peace Secondary School is holding a Talent Show and Art Auction on Saturday, with all proceeds going to a school in Olinda, Brazil. – Advertisement -17 year-old Kimmie Gulevich says the idea stems from a “Me to We” conference held in September. Students from the School District 60 pledged to hold a ‘Global Event’, and focused on fundraising for kids in need. [asset|aid=2591|format=mp3player|formatter=asset_bonus|title=163233bf0de3c2d465c879027ab9c587-Kimmie Gulevich 1_2_Pub.mp3] Kids that attend the Brazilian school live in the slums of Olinda, and education is usually their only refuge.Advertisement By Christine Rumleskie The North Peace students hope to raise $3,000 for the school. It takes $50 a day to operate the facility in Olinda, so the school could be fully-operational for two months, if the students make their goal.Tickets to the event are $5.00 each, and include access to the talent show and art auction. Doors open at 2:00 p.m. at the North Peace Secondary School.