Lenski and Adami are at it again (see 05/08/2003 headline), attempting to demonstrate Darwinian evolution in the computer with “digital organisms” which they describe as ”domesticated computer viruses” Their digital organisms are small computer programs with logic functions that can reproduce and respond to mutations. They reward the ones that evolve with more resources (CPU time and memory). Last time, the rewards were constant. “In this study,” by contrast, “we used a configuration in which the reward obtained by a particular organism for performing any logic function declines with consumption of the reward by other organisms.” Presumably that stimulates what Darwinists term “adaptive radiation,” or rapid speciation when organisms invade a heterogeneous new environment. The motivation for this new study was to troubleshoot a Darwinian anomaly: “The explanation for differences in species richness among habitats has been called ’perhaps the greatest unsolved ecological riddle.’” Assuming that productivity (defined as resource inflow to the system) has the greatest effect on species richness, they ran their simulations to reward productivity and found:In experiments with evolving digital organisms and populations of fixed size, maximum species richness emerges at intermediate productivity, even in a spatially homogeneous environment, owing to frequency-dependent selection to exploit an influx of mixed resources. A diverse pool of limiting resources is sufficient to cause adaptive radiation, which is manifest by the origin and maintenance of phenotypically and phylogenetically distinct groups of organisms.What is a “species” in cyberspace, by the way? “As our operational definition of species, we use clusters of organisms that all have small phylogenetic distances from one another. The phylogenetic distance between two organisms is defined as the total number of intermediate organisms (having different genotypes from their parents) along the lines of descent leading to their most recent common ancestor.”1Chow, Wilkie, Ofria, Richard E. Lenski and Christoph Adami, “Adaptive Radiation from Resource Competition in Digital Organisms,” Science, Vol 305, Issue 5680, 84-86, 2 July 2004, [DOI: 10.1126/science.1096307].Same fallacies (see 05/08/2003 and 05/24/2004 headlines), same irrelevancies, same verdict: dumb (repeat 5x to the tune of Dragnet). This is not Darwinian evolution, it is (marginally) intelligent design. Talk about dysteleology; a Panda’s thumb is more sensible than these arbitrary “adaptations”. They need to read the Dec 4 issue of Nature (see 12/03/2003 headline) before assuming adaptive radiation is real, otherwise their project was nothing more than a rigged demonstration of a fantasy. As with most unsolved riddles, the answer is often obvious, but where you least expect it. Any guesses?(Visited 14 times, 1 visits today)FacebookTwitterPinterestSave分享0
(Visited 99 times, 1 visits today)FacebookTwitterPinterestSave分享0 It’s a little late to begin a new climate of transparency among climatologists. What does that imply about the past?It happened by accident, Paul Voosen reports in his article for Science Magazine, “Climate scientists open up their black boxes to scrutiny.”It began with an unplanned leave of absence. But it has blossomed into a full-fledged transparency movement for climate science.In 2010, Erich Roeckner, a longtime guru behind the global climate model at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPIM) in Hamburg, Germany, was unable to work. The timing was inopportune: Deadlines loomed for an international project that would compare the major climate models with one another, and MPIM’s had a bug….With Roeckner out of commission, a team of six people spent several months tuning the MPIM model to match the climate and eliminate the glitch. Their work, though laborious, was fairly routine. What was unusual was their decision, in 2012, to publish a detailed accounting of it. Roeckner’s absence was random. But in hindsight, it was the butterfly flapping that has now led climate modelers to openly discuss and document tuning in ways that they had long avoided, fearing criticism by climate skeptics.This revelation should strike readers as disturbing on several levels. That the details of such a politically-fraught subject have been concealed from the public in a “black box” seems contrary to the very spirit of science, where transparency in scientific methods should be paramount. Voosen has just let the cat out of the bag: “fearing criticism by climate skeptics,” climate modelers have “long avoided” letting the public look inside the box. Why? If their data are incontrovertible—as all the big science institutions constantly assure the public—why the fear?We also see a disturbing situation in that modelers “tune” their inputs to the climate in clunky ways. Does the following sound like the classical scientific method? Count the ways things could go wrong as you listen to Voosen describe the sausage-making in the modeling rooms:At their core, climate models are about energy balance. They divide Earth up into boxes, and then, applying fundamental laws of physics, follow the sun’s energy as it drives phenomena like winds and ocean currents. Their resolution has grown over the years, allowing current models to render Earth in boxes down to 25 kilometers a side. They take weeks of supercomputer time for a full run, simulating how the climate evolves over centuries.When the models can’t physically resolve certain processes, the parameters take over—though they are still informed by observations. For example, modelers tune for cloud formation based on temperature, atmospheric stability, humidity, and the presence of mountains. Parameters are also used to describe the spread of heat into the deep ocean, the reflectivity of Arctic sea ice, and the way that aerosols, small particles in the atmosphere, reflect or trap sunlight.It’s impossible to get parameters right on the first try. And so scientists adjust these equations to make sure certain constraints are met, like the total energy entering and leaving the planet, the path of the jet stream, or the formation of low marine clouds off the California coast. Modelers try to restrict their tuning to as few knobs as possible, but it’s never as few as they’d like. It’s an art and a science. “It’s like reshaping an instrument to compensate for bad sound,” Stevens says.Wait a minute: who decides what is a “bad sound”? There seems to be a lot of wiggle room in this “art” of modeling – enough to get a politically-motivated result by turning enough knobs. This is definitely not a case of following the evidence where it leads. It’s more like Finagle’s Rule #3, “Draw your curves first, then plot your data.” If funding sources, the politically powerful and the UN want a result they can promote like “Man-caused global warming will raise global temperatures by 2 degrees in 100 years,” then who is a lowly modeler to get a contrary result from his black box, especially if he fears climate skeptics? Voosen says this is exactly what has been going on all along.For years, climate scientists had been mum in public about their “secret sauce”: What happened in the models stayed in the models. The taboo reflected fears that climate contrarians would use the practice of tuning to seed doubt about models—and, by extension, the reality of human-driven warming. “The community became defensive,” Stevens says. “It was afraid of talking about things that they thought could be unfairly used against them.” Proprietary concerns also get in the way. For example, the United Kingdom’s Met Office sells weather forecasts driven by its climate model. Disclosing too much about its code could encourage copycats and jeopardize its business.One can see plenty of room for corruption here: profit motives, reputations, the us-vs-them mentality. Secret sauce? Taboos? This is not Las Vegas, where what happens there stays there. It looks for all the world like political parties or competing corporations using dirty tricks, not scientists seeking to understand the real world. His terminology about secrecy and fear should be alarming to a wary public that respects science but is worried about the economic costs of draconian climate mitigation policies, such as carbon taxes and elimination of fossil fuel jobs, that the politicians say, based on these models, must be imposed for the good of the planet.Voosen’s article doesn’t give much hope that climate science will improve with the new transparency fad. The following episode most likely never made it into the Paris accords or the latest IPCC report:Recently, while preparing for the new model comparisons, MPIM modelers got another chance to demonstrate their commitment to transparency. They knew that the latest version of their model had bugs that meant too much energy was leaking into space. After a year spent plugging holes and fixing it, the modelers ran a test and discovered something disturbing: The model was now overheating. Its climate sensitivity—the amount the world will warm under an immediate doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations from preindustrial levels—had shot up from 3.5°C in the old version to 7°C, an implausibly high jump.MPIM hadn’t tuned for sensitivity before—it was a point of pride—but they had to get that number down. Thorsten Mauritsen, who helps lead their tuning work, says he tried tinkering with the parameter that controlled how fast fresh air mixes into clouds. Increasing it began to ratchet the sensitivity back down. “The model we produced with 7° was a damn good model,” Mauritsen says. But it was not the team’s best representation of the climate as they knew it.Voosen undoubtedly believes in anthropogenic global warming, as do the editors of Science. But if they thought this article was going to make the public feel better about climate experts, they must be kidding themselves. Bugs, leaks, plumbers – what’s going on here? And look at this photo caption: “Storm clouds are too small for climate models to render directly, and so modelers must tune for them.” Think about that. Surely clouds must be one of the most important factors in any climate theory, but this says they can’t use real cloud data. They have to fudge the model. They have to tinker with the numbers to get the result they want.If modelers were afraid of revealing their secret sauce, what will they do now that the window is open? Published in Science, this exposé into how international climate policy has been shaped by a group of inept tinkerers in back rooms will give the skeptics a field day like the re-opened FBI investigation into Clinton’s emails. But perhaps that’s just dandy. After all, every cloud has a silver lining, and sunshine is the best disinfectant.If this goes on in climate science, given all the funding and political pressure involved, you can be sure similar tinkering goes on in models of Darwinian evolution. The DODOs and DOPEs must keep the Darwin skeptics at bay at all costs. Don’t count on transparency there.
A month after the Maharashtra Assembly election results were announced on October 24, the political impasse in the State seems to have reached a climax, albeit with a stunning overnight twist. In less than twelve hours, the focus shifted from the NCP-Congress-Shiv Sena alliance that was all set to form a government, to the BJP, as Devendra Fadnavis took oath as the Chief Minister early on Saturday along with NCP leader Ajit Pawar as Deputy CM.Here’s what transpired in the month leading up to the event:October 24: Divided outcomesElections to the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly were held on October 21. Allies BJP and Shiv Sena emerge as the two largest parties in the results, but both parties see a dip in the number of seats won and their vote share. Meanwhile, the NCP and the Congress are net gainers, with 54 and 44 seats respectively.Although a BJP-Shiv Sena government with Mr. Fadnavis at the helm seems like a done deal, the Sena insists on a rotational chief ministership. The BJP, however, maintains that it does not intend to share the post.October 25-29: the early signs of turmoilShiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray says he will only have discussions with BJP national president Amit Shah.Mr. Fadnavis denies acceding to the Sena’s demands. “I have confirmed with Amit Shah and he told me that the BJP has not given any assurance for the Chief Minister’s post for two-and-a-half years (each for the BJP and Sena),” he says.The two parties, in a bid to boost their numbers, enlist the support of MLAs from small outfits and independents.The Congress and the NCP stick to their Oppositional role. “We are entering the new Assembly with not only increased strength but also renewed resolve to fight the anti-people policies of the government to the end,” says Nationalist Congress Party’s Mumbai unit president Nawab Malik. Ajit Pawar, NCP leader and nephew of Sharad Pawar, says that his party and the Congress will remain in the Opposition.October 30- November 2: unlikely alliance on the cards?On October 30, former Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan says the Congress high command shall decide on a possible alliance between the Congress and Shiv Sena: “These are ifs and buts… in case we do receive such a proposal from the Shiv Sena… To the best of my knowledge, no such proposal has come to us,” says the senior Congressman.Congress spokesperson Randeep Surjewala adds to the uncertainty. “Maharashtra is an evolving situation and in such an evolving situation, Congress general secretary in-charge Mallikarjun Kharge and the leaders of the State will decide. It won’t be proper to comment on this any further,” he says.Meanwhile, Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut says that he had a meeting with NCP chief Sharad Pawar. The latter however dismisses it as a routine visit.Mr. Pawar also met senior Congress leaders in the State on October 31. The leaders then visited Delhi to discuss the party’s stand if the Shiv Sena stakes claim to form the government. The Congress is yet to receive an official proposal from the Sena.Sanjay Raut also says that the Shiv Sena can form a government on its own, without formally mentioning a possible alliance between the Congress-NCP and Shiv Sena.While Congress’ Prithviraj Chavan briefs party president Sonia Gandhi, senior leader M. Veerappa Moily says they are open to supporting the Sena.November 3 – November 12: numerous upheavalsThe Shiv Sena steps up its rhetoric again with Mr. Raut claiming to have the support of up to 175 MLAs. A Sena Chief Minister would soon take oath at Shivaji Park, he claims on November 4.Meanwhile, the BJP tries to bring Shiv Sena back to the table by offering two key portfolios.In an important development, NCP chief Sharad Pawar meets Congress president Sonia Gandhi on November 4. Though the Congress didn’t comment on the meeting, sources claim Ms. Gandhi has reservations about Sena’s secular credentials.Finally, NCP spokesperson Nawab Malik says that the party is ready to be an alternative partner in the government.On November 7, the BJP meets Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari to discuss the situation in the State. The Governor later invites the party to form a government.However, the party is unable to carve up the requisite numbers and Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis resigns. Mr. Koshyari then calls NCP and Shiv Sena to stake their claim, but denies extra time to Sena. “We (Shiv Sena) were asked if we were willing to form the government. We have started talks with Congress and NCP. We have informed the Governor we have the willingness but the duration given to us is less. The process needs another 48 hours but he has refused us extra time,” says Aditya Thackeray.Shiv Sena and Congress put up their MLAs in hotels in Bandra and Jaipur respectively, amidst allegations of poaching by the BJP. The party denies the horse-trading allegations.On November 12, President’s rule is imposed in the State.November 12- November 15: consolidating tiesThe Shiv Sena moves the Supreme Court against the President’s Rule in the State. The three parties move closer to a formal alliance, working out a Common Minimum Programme. Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray says he will study unusual alliances in the country for information, and maintains that it is the BJP that caused their alliance to fall apart.Mr. Pawar says there is no need for mid-term polls and the post of Chief Minister shall lie with Shiv Sena.Shiv Sena announces that it will not attend the national NDA meet in Delhi and has parted ways with the BJP.November 15-November 22: coming to fruitionThe word ‘secularism’ becomes a bone of contention between the Congress-NCP and Shiv Sena, with the latter inclined to drop it from the CMP. Nonetheless, the three parties move closer to forming a government in an alliance called the ‘Mahavikas Aghadi’.Sharad Pawar meets Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Parliament ahead of announcing Uddhav Thackeray for the Chief Minister’s post. Senior BJP leaders say the meeting involved talks on the political situation in Maharashtra and that it has reignited hope that the party is not completely sidelined.On the eve of November 22, the tri-party alliance announces that Uddhav Thackeray is set to assume chief ministership of the State.November 23: a stunning turn of eventsBJP leader Devendra Fadnavis and NCP leader Ajit Pawar take oath as Maharashtra Chief Minister and Deputy Chief Minister respectively.“The State is suffering from farmer problems. The instability in the State is not good for the development of the State. It was important to form the government. Ajit dada came with us and we approached the Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari and claimed to form the government. The President’s rule was removed and we decided to take oath today itself,” says Mr. Fadnavis, while talking to news agency ANI at Raj Bhavan.President Ram Nath Kovind revokes President’s Rule in the State in a notification signed at 5.47 am.
About the authorPaul VegasShare the loveHave your say Bournemouth boss Howe delighted with Fraser formby Paul Vegas10 months agoSend to a friendShare the loveBournemouth boss Eddie Howe is delighted with the form of Ryan Fraser.The Scotland international has been a regular presence under Howe this season and is level with Eden Hazard for most assists in the Premier League this season with nine.”He’s done so well this [season], he’s been a regular goal creator, goal scorer and his set-piece delivery has been excellent, which was evident on Wednesday,” Howe said.”Two lovely free-kicks, one floated and one whipped, with two goals coming from that. So really pleased.”I’m not surprised [by his performances]. His technical ability is so high; he’s got two lovely feet and a very good football brain.”It was more a case of wanting him to show everybody what he can do on a consistent basis and he’s started to do it this [season].”
Chelsea manager Lampard: Hudson-Odoi, James not ready for returnby Freddie Taylora month agoSend to a friendShare the loveChelsea manager Frank Lampard says Callum Hudson-Odoi and Reece James need more time in the U23s.The teenage duo are expected to be utilised in Lampard’s first-team squad after returning to action with the U23 side last week.But Lampard wants to see them gain more fitness before returning to be considered for selection.”They are fit but not match fit,” said Lampard ahead of Tuesday’s Champions League clash with Valencia. “Callum is getting extra work in and with Reece, he played in the Under-23s and they may need another game in the Under-23s in them before they are ready for action. N’Golo similarly. “Although not to play in Under-23s, he will have more training to do just because the injury has been bothering him.” About the authorFreddie TaylorShare the loveHave your say
TagsTransfersAbout the authorAnsser SadiqShare the loveHave your say Bournemouth to reward Ramsdale with bumper contractby Ansser Sadiq17 days agoSend to a friendShare the loveBournemouth are set to award goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale with a new contract.According to TEAMtalk, the England under-21 international is set to get a new deal that will double his wages.Ramsdale has starred in the Premier League for the Cherries, playing all eight clashes for Eddie Howe’s team.The youngster has beaten out the likes of Asmir Begovic and Artur Boruc for the starting spot.And it appears that his wages will reflect his current status in the squad a little more, if he decides to sign the renewal.
YouTubeThe Jameis Winston crab legs story was one of the craziest of the year in college football, and based on a clip from ESPN’s “Draft Academy,” we may not have had the whole story after all. On the “Combine” episode of ESPN’s series, while going through interview practice with Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh, Winston went into detail about the crab legs incident, explaining that a Publix employee had “hooked him up” with the free food before someone else called security on him.This certainly changes the story, and seems like it could be an NCAA issue, especially if this is a common occurence. We’ll continue to update on this new development as more unfolds.
zoomIllustration; Source: Pexels Greek ship owner and operator Euroseas has secured a charter contract for its 5,600 TEU container vessel, the Akinada Bridge.Built in 2001, the ship would be deployed on the charter for a minimum of ten and maximum of thirteen months at a daily rate of USD 16,500.Euroseas said that the charter would commence upon completion of the vessel’s special survey and drydocking and the installation of a ballast water treatment plant at a total cost of about USD 2.5 million.The company added that it expects to fully recover the above-mentioned cost over the duration of the charter and to finance it via a loan from an entity affiliated with the company’s CEO.“The strength of the intermediate size containership market has provided us with an opportunity to charter our only non-feeder vessel at rates that justified the investment required to complete the fourth special survey of the vessel and installation of a BWT plant. After the completion of the announced charter, we expect to have the vessel available for employment until its fifth special survey due date, i.e. for four additional years, with minimal incremental investment required beyond its operating cost,” Aristides Pittas, Chairman and CEO of Euroseas, said.“We are cautiously optimistic about the prospects of the containership market across all segments as fleet growth over the next couple of years is expected to be low by recent trends.”
After the offseason from hell, the Ohio State football team could enter a phase the program not seen in Columbus in a long time. Because of the recent dominance of OSU football over the last decade, these four words have been seemingly absent from the central Ohio vernacular: It’s a rebuilding year. Tuesday, quarterback Terrelle Pryor announced that he would not be returning to OSU for his senior season. Pryor had a 31-4 record as a starter at OSU, second most wins by a quarterback at OSU, behind Art Schlichter. Pryor passed for a career total of 6,177 yards, ran for 2,164 yards and was responsible for 74 touchdowns. That is 444 points of offense, driving away in a Nissan 350Z. Who is going to step up as Pryor’s replacement? Eventually it will be Braxton Miller, a true freshman from Huber Heights, Ohio. For now, Miller is an unrefined passer, a threat on the ground and 100 percent unproven. When Pryor announced his departure through his attorney on Tuesday, almost immediately, “Braxton Miller” was trending on Twitter in Columbus. It is evident that Buckeye fans are ready for the next chapter, but unfortunately for them, the storybook ending is a long way off. Miller was shaky at best in the jersey scrimmage that replaced the Spring Game this year, and got most of his production against the second-team defense. While he has the athletic ability to succeed, Miller has yet to take a snap in front of an opposing defense at the collegiate level. On top of being without Pryor, the 2011 squad will be without running back Dan Herron for the first five games of the season. Herron led the team in rushing in 2010 with 1,155 yards and 16 touchdowns. The Scarlet and Gray will also be without DeVier Posey for the first five games of the 2011 season. Posey was the Buckeyes’ second-leading receiver, 100 yards behind team leader Dane Sanzenbacher, who had 948 receiving yards. OSU will also be without offensive lineman Mike Adams and defensive end Solomon Thomas for the first five games of the upcoming season. Linebacker Jordan Whiting earned a one-game suspension. In those five games, OSU will play at Miami (Fla.) and at home against Michigan State. These are two teams that could be difficult to beat without a productive offense. These deficiencies don’t even include a young squad that has to replace seven starters on the defensive side of the ball, two starters on the interior offensive line and the lack of experience at wide receiver. If that’s not enough to scream rebuilding year, what is? Former head coach Jim Tressel resigned from his position on Memorial Day, following conversations with athletic director Gene Smith. Tressel said it was “in the best interest of Ohio State” that he resign from his position. Tressel amassed a 106-22 record while at OSU. He went 9-1 against Michigan. He won a National Championship in 2002. And he is gone. OSU announced it would not be pursuing any other coaches until the conclusion of the 2011 season. The fate of the 2011 Buckeyes lies with interim head coach Luke Fickell. Fickell has never had a head-coaching job. Fickell is the team’s former assistant head coach, co-defensive coordinator and linebacker coach. No offense to Fickell, but with names like Urban Meyer, Bo Pelini, Jon Gruden and Mark Dantonio being thrown into the mix for 2012, his coaching experience is coming into question. The reality of the situation is that the Buckeyes are not a top-10 team. OSU is not going to breeze its way through the regular season. And in the first year the Big Ten has planned an official Big Ten Championship Game, OSU can count itself out of the Dec. 3 affair.